Societal Disbelief in Secrets and its Consequences

Key Insight

A widespread societal belief posits that there are no significant secrets left to discover, a sentiment articulated by Ted Kaczynski, the Unabomber, who argued that modern people suffer from depression because all hard problems have been solved, leaving only easy or impossible tasks. This loss of faith in new frontiers is pervasive, manifesting in various forms of fundamentalism—religious, environmental, or free market—which dismiss the zone of 'hard truths' as heresy or unquestionable mysteries. Furthermore, the perceived disappearance of physical frontiers, with no 'blank spaces' left on maps since the 19th and early 20th centuries, contributes to this outlook, limiting the perceived scope for exploration and discovery to historical accounts rather than current possibilities.

Four social trends collectively reinforce the skepticism towards secrets. First, incrementalism, fostered from an early age, discourages grand leaps by rewarding small, step-by-step progress; this extends to academia where professors often chase numerous trivial publications over groundbreaking discoveries. Second, risk aversion prevents people from seeking unvetted secrets, as the fear of being 'lonely and wrong' can be unbearable, outweighing the prospect of being 'lonely but right'. Third, complacency afflicts social elites who, rather than exploring new ideas, comfortably 'collect rents' on existing achievements, believing their worries are over. Finally, the perception of a 'flat' world, intensified by globalization, creates doubt; individuals question if a new discovery were possible, wouldn't someone else from the vast global talent pool have found it already, thereby stifling individual initiative to search for unique contributions.

This collective disbelief in secrets carries severe consequences for societal progress and organizational vitality. A world without secrets implies a perfect understanding of issues like justice, yet historical examples, such as the early 19th-century view on slavery, demonstrate that hidden injustices can persist when most people fail to recognize moral truths. In economics, blind faith in 'efficient markets' has repeatedly led to catastrophic financial bubbles, like the dot-com bubble in 1999 and the housing crisis of 2008, which wiped out trillions because underlying inefficiencies were ignored despite 'signs of froth' being present. For companies, abandoning the search for secrets leads to decline; Hewlett-Packard, for instance, saw its market capitalization plummet from 135 billion dollars in 2000 to 23 billion dollars by 2012, after ceasing invention and becoming mired in internal dysfunction, exemplified by a board that prioritized oversight and rule-following over pursuing new technologies. While this skepticism has led to fewer 'crazy cults', it has come at the significant cost of losing humanity's sense of wonder at the vast array of secrets still awaiting discovery.