Cover of The Coming Wave by Mustafa Suleyman - Business and Economics Book

From "The Coming Wave"

Author: Mustafa Suleyman
Publisher: Crown
Year: 2023
Category: Technology & Engineering

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Chapter 14: Ten Steps Toward Containment
Key Insight 3 from this chapter

Strategic Control and Responsible Development Frameworks

Key Insight

Leveraging 'choke points'—critical concentrations within technology supply chains—is a strategic method to slow the pace of technological hyper-evolution and gain invaluable time for developing containment strategies. A significant illustration is the US export controls imposed on October 7, 2022, against China, which criminalized the sale of high-performance computing chips and manufacturing tools, as well as the provision of repair know-how for advanced semiconductors (under 14 nanometers) by US companies. This action addressed China's acute reliance on imported chips and aimed to impede its technological advancement, despite ongoing efforts by Chinese companies to bypass controls and a long-term push towards domestic semiconductor capacity. These controls serve as a 'live experiment,' demonstrating that the technological wave can be slowed, at least temporarily and regionally, providing crucial time to implement additional safety measures, test off switches, enhance defensive technologies, and forge international alliances.

Technologists hold a clear responsibility to actively address the problems created by their innovations, acknowledging that the development of genetic modification or large language models is not compulsory, and the pervasive spread of technology underscores the necessity of 'getting things right.' The onus of both identifying problems and implementing solutions falls on the creators, whose proactive engagement is essential for successful containment. Similarly, critics of technology must transcend mere observation or vocal protest; they are vital participants who should engage as practitioners, actively building and shaping technology's trajectory. This perspective emphasizes that technology critically needs critics involved on the front lines, grappling with the practical realities of creation, thereby introducing diverse intellectual, ethical, and humanistic viewpoints into the development process. Proximity to a technology's core enhances the ability to influence outcomes, guide it positively, and prevent harmful applications, despite the inherent paradoxes and risks of inadvertently accelerating negative consequences.

Reconciling profit with social purpose in commercial models is fundamental for containing exponential technologies, moving beyond the traditional corporate focus solely on shareholder returns. Early endeavors at hybrid organizational structures, such as those pursued at DeepMind after its 2014 acquisition by Google, aimed to integrate robust governance models commensurate with the mission of creating true AGI, recognizing it as a force potentially beyond a single corporation's control. Proposals included establishing an 'ethics and safety board' and spinning DeepMind into a 'global interest company,' legally committed to transparency, accountability, and ethics, with an independent board of trustees overseeing the operational board of directors. This model intended to reinvest a significant portion of AI profits into public service technologies like carbon capture or new drugs, allowing for the open-sourcing of major breakthroughs. Although ultimately unfeasible within the existing shareholder capitalism framework, these efforts underscored the necessity of unprecedented governance to match unprecedented technology and the importance of engaging diverse external stakeholders to provide crucial perspectives on cutting-edge developments, a challenge further evidenced by the difficulties encountered with Google's AI ethics advisory council.

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