Demographic Luck and its Impact on Opportunity

Key Insight

The lives of lawyers like Maurice Janklow, born in 1902, exemplify the challenges faced by those born before 1911. This generation graduated college during the peak of the Great Depression, when job opportunities were scarce. By the time World War II arrived, they were in their late thirties, forcing them to disrupt established careers and family lives. For Jewish lawyers in New York, already facing closed doors at major firms, the Depression exacerbated their struggles, with nearly half the metropolitan bar earning below subsistence levels, making solo practice a 'dignified road to starvation.' Maurice Janklow's entry into the writing-paper business in 1929, newly married, was timed catastrophically, leading to a career of struggle and risk aversion.

In stark contrast, individuals born in the 1930s benefited from a 'demographic trough'—a markedly smaller generation due to decreased birthrates during the Depression. For instance, birthrates dropped from 29.5 babies per 1000 Americans in 1915 to 18.7 in 1935, before rising to 24.1 in 1950. This smaller cohort experienced significantly less competition for resources and opportunities. They entered a spacious educational system, with New York City public schools in the 1940s considered the best in the country, staffed by brilliant educators who, due to the Depression, sought stability in public teaching as a high-status job.

This demographic advantage extended to higher education and the job market. Individuals like Mort Janklow (born 1930s) and Ted Friedman (born 1930s), despite humble backgrounds, found it easy to access excellent education. Friedman, for instance, had options like free City College or the University of Michigan for $450 a year, and could readily secure high-paying jobs in factories and construction, such as at the River Rouge Ford plant or building the Chrysler proving grounds, to fund his studies. This period offered abundant employment opportunities because factories needed to serve the larger preceding generation and the upcoming baby boomers. Being born in the early 1930s provided a 'magic time' for aspiring lawyers, offering a unique 'sense of possibility' and a favorable supply-and-demand dynamic in their career paths, enabling them to take risks and achieve success that eluded earlier generations.