Power-Law Distribution of Social Problems

Key Insight

Many social issues, like police misconduct, are initially assumed to follow a 'normal' distribution, implying widespread problems across a broad middle. However, the Christopher Commission's investigation into the Los Angeles Police Department (LAPD) following the Rodney King beating revealed a 'power-law distribution.' Out of 8500 officers, 1800 faced allegations, but a disproportionately small number accounted for the majority of severe issues: 183 officers had four or more complaints, 44 had six or more, 16 had eight or more, and one officer accumulated 16 complaints, including multiple excessive force allegations, use-of-force reports, and shootings.

This same power-law distribution applies to homelessness, challenging the despairing notion of an unmanageable problem with countless individuals in distress. Dennis Culhane's research, the first of its kind, tracked shelter users in Philadelphia, demonstrating that 80 percent of homeless individuals were 'in and out' quickly, often staying one or two days and never returning. Another 10 percent were 'episodic users,' primarily young heavy drug users who would stay for about three weeks at a time and return periodically. The crucial remaining 10 percent, the 'chronically homeless,' were older, frequently mentally ill or physically disabled, and resided in shelters for years—this small group constitutes the popular image of homelessness.

Despite being a minority, the chronically homeless incur the vast majority of costs. In New York, approximately 2500 chronically homeless individuals cost the system 62000000 dollars annually for shelter beds, averaging 24000 dollars per bed per year. Data from Boston showed 119 chronically homeless people accounting for 18834 emergency room visits over five years, at a minimum cost of 1000 dollars per visit. In San Diego, 15 chronically homeless inebriates generated 417 emergency room visits over eighteen months, averaging 100000 dollars each. This concentrated pattern of high costs among a few 'hard cases' indicates that targeted, rather than broad, interventions are key to solving homelessness.